Political Analysis : Victory in Tikrit Reveals Deeper Problems

Tikrit
On the evening of April 2nd, Iraqi Prime Min­is­ter Haider al-Abadi announced the lib­er­a­tion of Tikrit.[1] The Iraqi flag was raised over the local gov­ern­ment build­ing to sig­nal the cen­tral government’s con­trol and talk of recov­er­ing Mosul is now being touted. Tikrit is cur­rently the only major Iraqi city to be retaken from ISIS, who in spec­tac­u­lar fash­ion in 2014 humil­i­ated the Iraqi army in Mosul and then began to con­quer the Anbar province all the way to Bagh­dad.  Despite con­sid­er­able US aid, mil­i­tary equip­ment and train­ing the Iraqi army and gov­ern­ment could do noth­ing as ISIS expanded its ter­ri­tory. After the US inter­ven­tion when the Kur­dis­tan Regional Gov­ern­ment (KRG) was on the verge of col­lapse it will soon be a year since the Iraqi gov­ern­ment began to take back ter­ri­tory it lost. Tikrit is now being held as a model tem­plate to retake Iraq from ISIS and an even­tual assault on Mosul itself. On closer inspec­tion the Tikrit oper­a­tion reveals glar­ing gaps in Iraqi capa­bil­i­ties and the suc­cess­ful oper­a­tion had lit­tle to do with the Iraqi army.
The offen­sive to recap­ture Tikrit, which is 125 kilo­me­tres north of Bagh­dad, that began on 1 March 2015 was never an Iraqi gov­ern­ment oper­a­tion. For all intents and pur­poses it was an Iran­ian oper­a­tion. Of the 27,000 troops involved most of them were Shi’ah mili­tia organ­ised, trained, armed, advised and led by Iran­ian offi­cers. The whole oper­a­tion for Tikrit was super­vised by Major Gen­eral Qasim Suleimani, the head of the Quds Force – the elite spe­cial oper­a­tions wing of the Rev­o­lu­tion­ary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran.[2] The 27,000 mili­tia advanced in three columns and after three days the attack force moved Qasim into the sub­urbs of Tikrit, but then strug­gled to defeat the resis­tance in cen­tral Tikrit. The fact that Iran led this oper­a­tion shows the Iraqi troops are in no posi­tion to han­dle such large-scale urban war­fare. The oper­a­tion also shows that Iran will have to pro­vide secu­rity to Iraq for the fore­see­able future just as it has been doing since the US con­structed Iraqi gov­ern­ment emerged in 2006. It is Iran that has propped up the gov­ern­ment in Bagh­dad and it is clear now the US and Iran are on the same page with the future of Iraq – i.e. Iran will main­tain theUS con­structed polit­i­cal architecture.
The strat­egy to take back the town was cen­tred on retak­ing the sub­urbs and sur­round­ing areas of TikritTikrit and then to launch a large, sus­tained attack to break the back of ISISin cen­tral Tikrit. This was always going to be a hard task con­sid­er­ingISIS have had 7 months to for­tify their posi­tions, entrench them­selves and set traps for the advanc­ing mili­tias. Through the use of artillery and mass bom­bard­ment the areas around Tikrit where cleared in order to descend on cen­tral Tikrit where ISIS had dug in. As this type of strat­egy lacked pre­ci­sion strikes the areas cleared required house-to-house clear­ing and this is what caused most of the casu­al­ties in the Iranian-Iraqi mili­tia forces.  Iran trained these troops to view this bat­tle as a Sunni-Shi’ah war with death and mar­tyr­dom a cen­tral com­po­nent of the strat­egy in order to advance. This type of war­fare requires mass mur­der in the form of an epic blood­bath just to clear and advance one’s forces. As this is a prim­i­tive form of urban war­fare it is unable to crack for­ti­fied posi­tions, which is why by mid-March the whole oper­a­tion came to a vir­tual stand­still as a small pocket of resis­tance was able to stick out in cen­tral Tikrit and still cause dis­pro­por­tion­ate casu­al­ties to the Iranian-Iraqi advanc­ing militia.
The inter­ven­tion of US air­power from March 20, is what turned the tide in Tikrit as the oper­a­tion had stalled. This required Iran and the US to coor­di­nate strikes in Tikrit in order to avoid hit­ting loca­tions where the mili­tias were oper­at­ing. The US airstrikes rein­vig­o­rated the stalled offen­sive as it dam­aged the ISIS posi­tions that remained in cen­tral Tikrit allow­ing the mili­tia forces to push into cen­tral Tikrit and finally take the city com­pletely. This caused a frac­ture within the Shi’ah mili­tia groups who dis­agreed with the US inter­ven­tion, lead­ing to one fac­tion to leave the war.[3] But this type of oper­a­tion which places the Sunni-Shi’ah sec­tar­ian his­tory as a cen­tral moti­va­tion led to loot­ing, sum­mary exe­cu­tions and sets a dan­ger­ous prece­dent for future oper­a­tions.  Due to the lack of mil­i­tary capa­bil­ity, incom­pe­tency and over­all lack of train­ing both the Iraqi and Iran­ian gov­ern­ment have been forced to use other means of moti­vat­ing its troops as strat­egy, vision and tac­tics is not what binds them together.  This is why the mili­tias engaged in mass exe­cu­tions and wide­spread loot­ing and destruc­tion of prop­erty in Tikrit since it was recaptured.[4] As many as 76 peo­ple were sum­mar­ily exe­cuted by mili­tia forces, who dragged the bod­ies through the streets.[5] The fact that Tikrit was the polit­i­cal base of Sad­dam Hus­sein, who repressed the Shi’ah only added to the sav­agery, as many who were fight­ing were doing so for sec­tar­ian purposes.[6] As the Iranian-Iraqi forces head fur­ther north, this will only get worse.
In the bat­tle for Tikrit, accord­ing to most esti­mates the Iranian-Iraqi force was fac­ing an ISIS force which only num­bered in the hun­dreds, up to 1000. But despite this small num­ber, it was able to face-off to a force 25 times larger by hold­ing out in a small urban pocket of Tikrit and cause dis­pro­por­tion­ate casu­al­ties to the advanc­ing forces. This was due to the tac­ti­cal use of Impro­vised Explo­sive Devices (IEDs) and snipers. The defend­ing forces made strate­gic use of IEDs at choke­points in the city. Thus when­ever a con­cen­tra­tion of forces occurred across cen­tral Tikrit, IEDs were utilised in order to cause sat­u­ra­tion. Whilst the Iran­ian offi­cers involved advanced slowly and cau­tiously, the mili­tias (who made up the over­whelm­ing num­bers) crit­i­cised them for not under­tak­ing bold moves, which they felt was hold­ing them back. This caused sig­nif­i­cant deaths in the advance for the city.  The snipers really played the role of long range marks­man­ship, which caused the most casu­al­ties due to the large force struc­ture try­ing to retake the city. Mosul is over 10 times the size of Tikrit, and were it not for US air­power the Iraqi-Iranian oper­a­tion would not have pro­gressed from its standstill.
Dis­lodg­ing ISIS will take a major invest­ment by the regional and inter­na­tional pow­ers from every pos­si­ble per­spec­tive the future of Iraq is analysed from. Whilst Iran has excelled in uncon­ven­tional war­fare, this works against con­ven­tional armies as the con­ven­tional force can be attacked by mobile forces that tar­get crit­i­cal sup­ply lines. In this case ISIS is a guer­rilla force that utilises uncon­ven­tional tac­tics, which would cause a stale­mate and a high rate of attri­tion against a sim­i­lar force.  The Iraqi army played a small role in the bat­tle for Tikrit and the Iraqi gov­ern­ment only spurted pro­pa­ganda of the bat­tle in order to shore up sup­port. Going for­ward even more exter­nal aid will be needed to shore up the coun­try and the gov­ern­ment and sec­tar­i­an­ism will, in all like­li­hood, be a cen­tral pol­icy in main­tain­ing the US con­structed architecture.



[1] http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/tikrit-liberated-iraqi-army-have-routed-isis-saddam-husseins-home-town-says-pm-abadi-1494411
[2] http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/03/05/iran-quds-force-leader-commanding-iraqi-forces-against-isis-alarms-americans/
[3] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/27/world/middleeast/iraq-us-air-raids-islamic-state-isis.html?_r=0
[4] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/17895-shia-militias-refuse-to-stop-looting-in-tikrit
[5] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3024595/Iraq-PM-orders-arrest-vandals-Tikrit.html
[6] http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/03/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-tikrit-special-re-idUSKBN0MU1DP20150403

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